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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kickboxer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/22/2020 at 21:06
Tell us about the one in 1580... the one that swept through Europe and Africa... did YOU start that???
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Son of Ed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/22/2020 at 22:15
Oh! The Monkey flu!   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote budperm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 07:16
Wouldn't the "Rattlesnake Flu" been a more appropriate name?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RifleDude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 09:30
Originally posted by Kickboxer Kickboxer wrote:

Remember the H1N1 "flu"???  No one really made a big deal about it(but they KNEW it was a pandemic from the very early stages)...in the United States about 61 MILLION cases, 250,000 people hospitalized, approximately 12,500 deaths
There were no business/State closures, no one was hoarding face masks and toilet paper... this is a MADE UP crisis in an attempt to hurt the Republicans in the upcoming election.  Fear mongering and hate is all the democrats know.  
Current US coronavirus stats:  about 27,000 cases, 350 deaths... it is now known that the virus was sent out to the world by China not sharing information on it (in an attempt to cover up its impact) beginning in November 2019.  
Where were the democrats when H1N1 hit??? Oh, right that was in 2009-2010 when obama was president and "quid pro Joe" was VP...

People are CRAZY...

Ok, I'm totally onboard with despising the democrats, but this isn't a "made up crisis."

H1N1 Swine Flu had an R0 of 1.4, whereas current data says COVID-19 has an R0 of 2.0-2.5. C-19 is much more contagious. A high % of the population had developed immunity to H1N1 because it's similar to other viruses that had spread through the population in the past. C-19 has little or no pre-existing immunity. H1N1 had a mortality rate of .02%, and so far C-19 has a mortality rate of 2%, 100X greater. One can say that the H1N1 mortality rate was understated due to a certain % of misdiagnoses at the earlier stages, but the same can also be said for C-19. C-19 has a much longer incubation period -- up to 14 days, compared to 2 days for H1N1. A person who has contracted C-19 can transmit it to others well before they begin showing symptoms. Further, the stats for H1N1 represents a year's worth of data, while we're only 2 months into this in the US since the first case of C-19 was confirmed here. We're still a very long way from determining the ultimate impact of C-19. C-19 may well prove to have lower cases and deaths in absolute numbers when all is said and done since much more drastic measures are being taken to limit its spread, but we don't know what the future will hold and won't know for at least a year. Regardless, C-19 is a much greater threat than H1N1 just comparing the severity of both viruses to human health. If all circumstances were the same, C-19 would likely have a higher tally of cases and deaths associated with it over the same time periods being compared. The two viruses aren't comparable.

Are democrats politicizing C-19 in an attempt to hurt Trump's reelection chances? Absolutely! The disinformation they are spewing is reprehensible...but also very predictable. This is nothing new; they've always done this. A prominent democrat once said "never let a crisis go to waste," and they live by this mantra. Fear and hatred is all they have to offer at the moment because they know they have no recent records of success in anything to sell, and they know their leading candidates suck. The democrat party is vile. BUT, multiple other countries are taking the same extreme measures being taken here and the hype outside the US is at similar intensity as here, and they certainly aren't motivated by US election results.

Is the constant media coverage and fear-mongering over C-19 fanning the flames on the "supplies-hoarding" hysteria? Absolutely! Does the media overwhelmingly "carry the water" for the democrat party? Absolutely +P!

Are the mandated closures of businesses and institutions and the widespread canceling of major events overreactions? It remains to be seen. Will a LOT of people be severely hurt financially, with many losing their jobs over business closures and retirement $ be lost? Absolutely! It sucks, big time! The jury is still out on whether it's the right call or not, however. History will be the judge, but "hindsight is always 20/20."

Regardless, removing politics and hype, the threat and potential impact of the virus itself is NOT a "made up crisis." Though the threat of death from C-19 is extremely low for the average healthy person, you could unknowingly spread it to someone else with compromised health who wouldn't be able to beat it, well before you know you have it yourself. This doesn't mean everyone should be fearful, but it still needs to be taken seriously.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kickboxer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 11:34
There are, on average, 56,000 U.S. deaths PER YEAR just from the "flu", based upon results from the CDC... but that is not a crisis.  H1N1, swine flu, was not a crisis... it killed about 12500 people in the U.S.  Ebola had a probable death of 50%, yet we BROUGHT Ebola cases to the United States... there were no shutdowns of businesses, mass orders to "stay in your house" (check the locations... mostly democrat-run states and cities) where they are actually using the police forces to FORCE people to stay in their homes.

This is a new flu... no one has an immunity to it.  Yes, there are some "high risk" people who will probably die if they get it... what is different from the "ordinary" flu??? There are people who will probably die from it if they get it (about 56000 times a year in the U.S.)... yet it is not a crisis.  Because COVID-19 is "new" and there are no immunities in the population, it is somewhat more deadly to "at risk" populations the the "ordinary" flu... are the populations "at risk" to the "ordinary" flu less valuable, more expendable???... an average of 56,000 deaths a year, but THAT'S OK, because it is the "ordinary" flu.  

Look at the massive mobilization of government and the rights granted in the Constitution that have been obliterated by that mobilization... so far.  The current "class" of democrats want to make it permanent and MUCH more aggressive.  

Personal responsibility is much more important than most of the governmental actions taken so far.  I'm not going to tell people what they should do, there are enough people, more than enough, doing that right now.  And, giving people information on what they SHOULD do is OK, forcing them to is much different.  
Perhaps that is easy for me to say, I don't consider myself in the "high risk" population... and I am responsible for myself.  I've had the flu a few times, not as many as many of the people i have associated with, for sure. I hate it... but one of my primary "goals" is to NOT spread it to others... unlike a majority of the population who think it is "heroic" to go to work, gyms, restaurants, etc while (the new popular term) "shedding virus".  It's not heroic, it's ass-inine, selfish and uncaring.  Even as bad as my parents were, they taught me from a very young age... if you are sick and have a fever STAY AWAY from people until you have been fever-free for at least 24 hours, bath and wash hands frequently... I've known that all my life.  When I've had instances where I had to fly when ill, I've always worn a mask and I have carried antibacterial wipes with me since they came on the market (I think I have some in every jacket I own)... not because it was doing anything for me, but because it was courteous and prevented others from acquiring my afflictions.

There are many thousands of jobs being lost right now.  In my current hometown, we ordered food yesterday from a local restaurant... almost the only... picking it up, my wife got into a conversation with the owners... the day before, they had 5 customers, yesterday, we were number 3.  We tipped them 3 times the cost of our food...1) because they have absolutely GREAT food, 2) they were depressed and scared and needed to know that someone cares, 3) they needed the money much more than we did.  I know that did not save them, but I hope it helps.  By the way, they are naturalized citizens from Mexico, very proud to be Americans, very proud to be "here" and not "there".

The CV-19 is new...it's effects really are not, but they are fairly predictable... the current reactions are new, some built by political lunacy, some by an inflamed media looking for the next crisis.  It is a created crisis.  The things that must be done to prevent the spread and death are mostly common sense and personal responsibility.  Certainly, there are instances where it can be passed along by those selfish, uncaring imbeciles who are being "sick and heroic" in their own minds, or just totally selfish activities... "powering through" the illnesses.  Limiting incoming air travel/sea travel/car travel from infected areas is certainly a very good idea... and things that government should rightly do.  Asking people to stay away from each other for a period of time (I actually believe that to be effective it would be more like 21 days rather than 14 or 15 as currently recommended), but that doesn't mean having the police outside your door telling you you can't leave.  Once again, personal responsibility would take care of most of the issues with this and most other diseases... Business owners should follow the Mark Cuban paradigm where they possibly can.  MANY can...
This is not the be all/end all killer of humanity.  It is NOT the Captain Trips virus from "The Stand" that eliminated 99.4% of the world's population.  It is a virulent disease that is already showing signs of containment and, due to the President releasing the medical/scientific communities, presenting significant evidence of being vulnerable to existing remedies.  
I don't believe it is a crisis... certainly does not warrant giving Cuomo an hour of news time every day.
When "the flu" becomes a crisis, maybe I'll think this is.
But carry on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dogger Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 12:34
Well our flight home from Miami on Wed was cancelled. Next available one out is Apr 9th from Fort Lauderdale. I’ll be enjoying your hospitality for a couple more weeks. Supposed to self quarantine for two weeks when we do get home - fun times!

Prudent precautions to avoid contracting and/or spreading this strain makes sense. The irrational responses this has resulted in are not. The US is not alone in what I believe are unnecessary over reactions. I believe that ubitquitous social media and ratings hungry networks have greatly fanned the flames and expect more of the same in the future.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RifleDude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 12:38
I never said that I thought all the business closures are the right thing to do. I Thought I very clearly expressed my skepticism, but again, it’s still too early to say for certain if it’s the right call. Peoples’ health is ultimately more important, and the closures may be very temporary; we don’t know yet.

Your common flu comparison is an equivocation because the common flu is much less of a threat for several reasons. We have vaccines for the flu that are pretty effective. Not so for C-19. The common flu has an R0 of 1.3; C-19 possibly as high as 2.5, which makes it nearly twice as contagious. The common flu has an average incubation period of 48 hours; C-19 is 5 days and up to 14 days. With no action taken, C-19 would be way more deadly than the flu. The common flu has a mortality rate of .1%; C-19 is 20X that. 

Not a valid comparison.


Edited by RifleDude - March/23/2020 at 13:18
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DPI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 13:06
A bit concerned myself as my wife is a doctor in the NHS, so she is high risk for catching this. If she gets sick, I am in Belgium, so that leaves my 18 year old daughter on the hook for care.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RifleDude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 13:16
Originally posted by Kickboxer Kickboxer wrote:

Ebola had a probable death of 50%, yet we BROUGHT Ebola cases to the United States... there were no shutdowns of businesses,

Ebola, though far deadlier than just about any other contagion, was much easier to identify and isolate because affected people were easy to diagnose; they weren’t walking around among the public, oblivious to being infected. It was also much less widespread around the world. We knew exactly where one was at risk of contracting Ebola. It is also transmitted by direct contact with an infected person’s bodily fluids, so is less contagious than C-19 despite being much more serious. Again, not an equivalent comparison.

Originally posted by Kickboxer Kickboxer wrote:

...mass orders to "stay in your house" (check the locations... mostly democrat-run states and cities) where they are actually using the police forces to FORCE people to stay in their homes.

....that doesn't mean having the police outside your door telling you you can't leave.  

Where exactly has that happened (police forces keeping people contained inside their homes)?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote supertool73 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 13:24
I got a letter today (pdf Doc) signed by Steven Mnuchin that is basically a pass that allows me to be outside my house and going to work.  It lists the industries that are critical and when shown to government workers and police they are supposed to leave me a lone and let me go to my job.

That makes me wonder what is coming.  If they are sending out letters to act as a pass for certain industries to go to work, what is going to happen next. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sgt. D Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 14:44
What indeed!!  That is why gun and ammo sales has "once again" sky rocketed!! Most major distributors are out of stock or allocated. AGAIN!!!!!
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote budperm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 14:54
They are watching you right NOW 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tahqua Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 16:52
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Son of Ed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 17:45
Welp, we're sheltering in place in Waco starting midnight tonight.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tahqua Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 17:56
Same here
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kickboxer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/23/2020 at 21:31
Originally posted by RifleDude RifleDude wrote:

I never said that I thought all the business closures are the right thing to do. I Thought I very clearly expressed my skepticism, but again, it’s still too early to say for certain if it’s the right call. Peoples’ health is ultimately more important, and the closures may be very temporary; we don’t know yet.

Your common flu comparison is an equivocation because the common flu is much less of a threat for several reasons. We have vaccines for the flu that are pretty effective. Not so for C-19. The common flu has an R0 of 1.3; C-19 possibly as high as 2.5, which makes it nearly twice as contagious. The common flu has an average incubation period of 48 hours; C-19 is 5 days and up to 14 days. With no action taken, C-19 would be way more deadly than the flu. The common flu has a mortality rate of .1%; C-19 is 20X that. 

Not a valid comparison.

Here's a look back on the 2009 swine flu pandemic with eight key facts from the CDC:

1. The flu strain responsible for the outbreak — influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 — was first detected in America in April 2009.

2. The strain represented a unique combination of influenza viruses never before seen in humans or animals.

3. The virus quickly spread globally, primarily affecting children and adults under 65 who lacked immunity to H1N1.

4. The WHO declared the swine flu outbreak a pandemic on June 11, 2009.

5. Between April 12, 2009, and April 10, 2010, the CDC estimates swine flu caused 60.8 million illnesses, 273,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S.

6. On Oct. 5, 2009, the U.S. began administering a newly approved H1N1 vaccine to select Americans, with vaccination coverage expanding nationwide by that December.

7. WHO declared an end to the pandemic on Aug. 10, 2010.

8. Globally, an estimated 151,700 to 575,400 people died from swine flu in the first year of the pandemic.

For reference, the COVID-19 pandemic has sickened 1,323 Americans and killed 38, as of March 12. More than 127,00 cases and 4,700 deaths have been reported globally.


some of the numbers vary within a few percentage points according to which site is providing information.

IF the obama administration had implemented the travel bans and other protection methodologies the Trump Administration put in place, it is highly likely the deaths would have been far less... however, they did not want to offend the "world".

The Trump Administration banned incoming traffic from Iran on 29 Feb... however, NY joined a suit to shut down the ban... a LIBERAL judge declared the ban unconstitutional.  THOUSANDS of COVID-19 infected people transitioned from Iran to New York.  There are about 44,000 cases in the US, 20,000 in NYC... who won? 

As for the "normal" flu... I'm just saying that it kills about 56,000 people a year... and that is not considered a crisis.  CONSERVATIVE estimates (so there is no question in my meaning... a conservative estimate means that it is likely MORE will recover, but the "benefit of the doubt" is being awarded to the CRISIS-mongers) are that 98% to 99% of those who contract COVID-19 will recover... it is highly likely that many more will recover, especially due to the President's actions.  IF we had allowed the virus to "run it's course", the "estimates" are that 1% (about 1.6 million people) MIGHT have died.  That is highly unlikely, but it is a number to consider. It is a "bad" number, but not a devastating number. 

BTW, your "2.5" number is unsubstantiated by any data, yesterday the number was 3.4.  It is a WAG (not even a SWAG... for those who don't know, a WAG is a WILD-A$$3D GUESS, the S is SCIENTIFIC)

I have friends who have family in Kalifornia... both San Francisco and Los Angeles... they reported to me that their family members, upon trying to leave the house to go get groceries were told to "STAY INSIDE... DO NOT ATTEMPT TO LEAVE.  WE ARE ENFORCING "SHELTER IN PLACE" ORDERS. IF YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY, WE WILL TRY TO ACCOMMODATE YOUR NEEDS".  That is the force of "law" telling people they cannot leave their homes.  They were FORCED, by LE, to stay in the house and told that "FORCE" would be used if they attempted to leave.  

As for ebola... it was only a mention that a disease that has a KNOWN and VERIFIED 50% mortality rate did not cause the democrats or the "mainstream media" any great concerns and that rather than restricting entry of ANY ebola afflicted people, the liberalistas demanded that they be brought to the US.  Sorry, but in MY book, that is a BAD IDEA.  Any disease with a 50% mortality rate should NOT be introduced onto our shores in any fashion.  We, the United States of America, have hospital ships that contain and treat such things... obama chose not to use those assets, but brought the afflicted into mainstream hospitals... and one never knows when a virus will MUTATE... they do it all the time... it can become much more virulent in a matter of days... the perfect killers.

I read a book years ago... back when I was a teenager... don't remember the name of the book, but I remember a statement that has been with me all my life... "sometimes... people die".  

There is a lot of BS involved with this "crisis".  To me, even if the 1% number became true, it is not a crisis, because people not taking care of themselves and others creates the issue... once the transmission medium is known, if people ignore it and continue to infect themselves and others when it can be prevented ...sad, but... I refer to the paragraph above...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dogger Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/24/2020 at 06:54
Must be pretty tough on apartment dwellers or for anyone who can’t escape to an open space for a while. One of the main reasons I’m not too upset about making it home just yet. Weather here has been great and still lousy at home.

Agree Dan.

Read a clinical study by the Annals of Internal Medicine from March on Covid incubation. Still a lot more testing to be done but they found that:

Less than 2.5% of people will show symptoms within 2.2 days
97.5% will show symptoms in 11.5 days
The mean incubation period is 5.1 days, similar to SARS

If the infection period after exposure follows most strains (24 hrs before onset of symptoms to 3.5 - 5 days following) then it should not necessarily put more at risk, only that You don’t know you have been exposed for a longer period.

As always way more research is needed but at this point most of what I have read indicates that it is not a more virulent strain.



Edited by Dogger - March/24/2020 at 07:24
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tahqua Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/24/2020 at 07:45
Latest for confirmed cases, Italy is 9.5% fatal. The numbers of cases are still going up but it looks to be at a decreasing rate.
U.S. is still really low, around 1.3% fatal, but cases are increasing rapidly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RifleDude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/24/2020 at 08:21
Hey Dan, we disagree; that’s fine. But at least try to use current data and reasonable comparisons to buttress your points.

Why do you continually use a year’s worth of cumulative data for the previous outbreaks to compare against 2 months worth of data for C-19? Why are you using the March 12 US data for C-19, when it’s now March 24? We’re currently at 46,168 cases and 582 deaths, not 1,323 and 38.


The R0 value isn’t a static number. It changes as measures taken start to take effect and as a disease runs its course. The numbers I gave for the other diseases represent their peak numbers. It is a very fluent metric at the beginning stages of an epidemic because as more case data is obtained, the math becomes a better representation of reality. It is not at all a “swag.” In the absence of immunity and medications to combat it, the models and current case data show that C-19 would be one of the top 5 deadliest outbreaks in history.


Your “police state” point is unadulterated hyperbole, plain and simple. Nobody, nowhere is being forced to stay in their homes by threat of police action. Most of the business, events, and institution closure decisions are being made by the entities themselves based on gov’t recommendations (I’m sure a lot based on liability mitigation).

Different viruses sometimes call for differing strategies to combat them based on calculated R0 models, availability of medications, existing levels of herd immunity, transmission modes, ease of identifying cases, incubation periods, etc. 
The point being, despite the fear-mongering and desire of the media to hurt Trump, it’s not a “made up crisis.” It could be an over-reaction, but at least the measures taken are based on epidemiological scientific models.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Son of Ed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March/24/2020 at 08:55
Here in Waco we can go ahead and be normal.....take walks, ride bikes, drive around, etc. etc.....but we are only supposed to be going inside of the Essential services like groceries, pharmacies, and stuff...

.....so I guess that means No Haircuts.....No gun stores.....No Hobby Lobby....no YMCA.....
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